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Increased population density means taller buildings requiring more high-quality steel. Demand for machinery also increases as more of the population urbanizes to find employment industries that are steel-intensive.
Taller buildings require substantially more steel. The steel intensity curve explains the long-term drivers for steel use see Figure 1. In many rapid-growth markets, which are in Stage 1 to the left of the steel intensity curve, steel consumption will continue to be driven by the growth of their construction and infrastructure sector.
Steel intensity compared to per capita GDP Integrated steel-making i. For each tonne of steel that is produced, about kg of iron ore and kg of coal are required. It is therefore likely that the raw material markets will remain oversupplied, with pricing flat for at least the next two years see market projections in Table 1.
This prolonged period of low prices is likely to push higher-cost suppliers out of the market. While there are concerns that China—as a key driver for growth in global steel demand—may have reached peak steel demand far earlier than previously forecasted and now has a lower growth outlook for the next two to three years, steel producers and raw material suppliers should not be deterred.
Considerable scope remains for growth in global steel demand in the medium to longer term. This will come through urbanization and industrialization in other rapidly growing markets as well as from other downstream sectors.
Once these trends gain traction, an uptick in raw material markets is likely. The Chinese government has been investing in infrastructure, which has helped drive economic growth.
The steel-intensive nature of infrastructure has driven the creation of vast steel production capacity within China, which in turn has fueled demand for coking coal and iron ore.
This, combined with new production coming online, has led to an oversupply in both the coking coal and iron ore markets with an ensuing drop in prices. The World Steel Association revised its forecasts to predict even slower growth in see Figure 2.
Outlook for growth in steel usage Considering the relationship between urbanization and steel, there is actually considerable scope for further steel demand from China.
From a downstream demand perspective, this means there is likely to be less investment in the property sector, which represents a downside risk for the steel sector and raw material producers.
As floor space sold in the first quarter of was down 9. Vehicle density by country highlights the growth potential in the automotive sector.
Under them, vehicles that fail to meet the standards will be banned from sale.
This will drive light-weighting of vehicles, which will drive the production of higher-quality flat steel, such as advanced high-strength steel in China.
However, it will also bring the possible threat of substitution with lighter materials, such as aluminum. The Indian government is investing heavily in infrastructure and has laid plans to boost domestic steel capacity to Mt per annum by To cater to this wave of increased steel production, the country must focus on augmenting its domestic coking coal sources by making better use of its domestic reserves.
Unlike coking coal, India has sufficient iron ore reserves to cater to its domestic steel industry. In the past, India has produced around Mt of iron ore per year, far more than its rate of domestic consumption of around — Mt.
In recent years, however, the Indian government imposed bans on iron ore mining to combat illegal mining—this step reduced domestic supply. The government is, however, planning to auction off iron ore assets, which will improve the domestic availability of iron ore.
Indian iron ore producers have the required infrastructure and logistics to ramp up production quickly to meet domestic steel sector demand in the next few years. The urban populations in Turkey and Mexico have increased from Thus the reliance of these countries on the seaborne iron ore and coking coal markets will be limited if this trend continues.
Similarly, the growing size of the Indonesian and Nigerian urban populations indicate that the usage of steel could increase in coming years, particularly due to demand from the infrastructure and construction sectors see Figure 5.
An increasing proportion of the population will be urbanized in Indonesia and Nigeria15 Steel consumption has already picked up in Indonesia. Africa as a whole represents a future growth opportunity for the global steel sector, particularly in terms of infrastructure.
African and Indonesian steel production is currently relatively small. Indonesia relies on coking coal imports for domestic steel production at present. Africa has only 3.Crime and Modernization: The Impact of Industrialization and Urbanization on Crime (SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) [Dr.
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By Mike Elliott Global Mining & Metals Leader, Ernst & Young. Urbanization and steel intensity go hand in hand. In the preliminary stages of a country’s urbanization, steel intensity increases with the need for new infrastructure for improved connectivity, efficient use of natural resources, and creation of sophisticated transport hubs.
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